The Tipping Point: Bakit nandian pa si Ate Glo?

Blogger's Note: Malcolm Gladwell's "The Tipping Point" is an observation and interpretation of the social phenomenon that happens everyday. Read on.

Why isn't it tipping? (2)
First posted 00:49am (Mla time) Sept 22, 2005 By Ma. Ceres P. Doyo,Inquirer News Service
http://news.inq7.net/opinion/index.php?index=2&story_id=50960

I RECEIVED varied feedback via e-mail on my Sept. 15 column, "Why isn't it tipping?" That piece was on Malcolm Gladwell's bestseller and page-turner, "The Tipping Point"; and on why the eagerly awaited or much-dreaded (depending on which side you are) tipping point that would lead to the Arroyo administration's fall was not happening. Gladwell's book presents events in history, real-life examples and studies that show how the tipping point phenomenon works.

I'm sharing portions of some letters:

From "Xcathedra":

"Social cybernetics is one specialized field of discipline that might give other interesting leads on why there still is a prevailing 'social feedback stasis' before and following the 'oust Arroyo' initiatives.

"In mathematics (fractals and Chaos Theory) and physics, that 'tipping' point is known as the advent of entropy/chaos. You might want to read James Gleick's book (it's old in today's standards, but still grippingly enlightening) titled 'Chaos.' You can have a whiff of an analytical framework for dissecting social change.

"I suspect the stasis has something to do (partly) with the current state of equilibrium of the 'system' (public reaction and feedback). To explain: For every introduction of a (change) variable that would induce disequilibrium (or 'chaos') leading to an adjustment or total change of a system, the adjusted or changed system will always emerge stronger than before (whether in the negative or positive sense).

"Having been exposed to several 'Edsa events' and propaganda of agitation, the usual recipe to induce the tipping point/entropy/chaos will not work. It has to have something more potent, something that can weaken the 'inured' (or stronger) new state of equilibrium of the ordinary people's collective response. The pond has endured too many small stones that another one will just create small ripples. You need a bigger stone or a new object that can induce the pond's waters to roil.

"Truth with a capital T matters. But the collective response system of ordinary people is in a stronger state of equilibrium in the different versions of truth-tired as they are of the long, wasteful string of investigations, accusations, and lawsuits (all of which led to more lies) that characterize how their leaders run the country."

From Ronald Cagape, IT professional:

"It, the bid to remove Pres. Arroyo, is not moving because it doesn't have all three elements in place.

"First, there are no people who fit the Law of the Few. Now it can be said that former President Aquino and Susan Roces actually have minimal impact. Whoever is backing them ought to notice that by now. With the passing of Cardinal Sin, the influence of the Catholic Church has diminished. The Church is currently being led by committee... Sadly, there is no one in the opposition who could proclaim himself a Connector, Maven or Salesman.

"Actually, there are people who fit the Law of the Few but they work for the President. Speaker De Venecia is a potent Connector and Salesman in political circles. So is former President Ramos. I'm sure, the Mavens in the presidential think-tank worked tirelessly to ensure the impeachment vote didn't go the other way. This is the team that has to be overcome if you want to tip the movement to the other side.

"Second, the Stickiness Factor in the movement is not compelling enough. All they have is 'Hello, Garci.' It doesn't evoke an image repugnant enough to move people to action. All I remember is a disgruntled former NBI man with personal grudges proclaiming he has the 'mother of all tapes.' He could be a Maven, if he could be called Maven, but he did not stand for anything. He was not an embodiment of principle, integrity or honor. He had no credibility...I couldn't even remember his name.

"If (they) want the President removed, they should find something despicable and make it sticky, such as the dancing Tessie Oreta-Aquino in Edsa 2. Now THAT was sticky. Or 'Tama na, sobra na' of the original People Power movement. These sticky factors riled people enough that they vented their anger in the streets ...Is cheating really all that bad? Which leads me to the last point.

"The Context has no Power. In an environment where everyone knows that all politicians cheat anyway, finding out your President cheated is not powerful enough to generate anger. So what if she cheated to be President? Every senator and congressman bidding to remove her also cheated...

"I don't see this tipping anytime soon."

From Ernie Adaya:

"Why isn't it tipping? The answer is very simple: 'Because (President Arroyo) is tipping' and tipping generously for survival. In the Philippines, politicians, the influence peddlers, etc. are always on the lookout for the tipping point, because, like the waiters and waitresses in restaurants, they know that at the tipping point, the 'tips' will start flowing generously.

"Gladwell fails to realize that in the Philippines, there is a fourth rule of the Tipping Point, that is the Power of the 'tip' or the 'Tipping' Factor."

From a hard-up reader named Jori, for bleeding hearts out there:
"ma'am, where can i possibly find the book you're referring to in your column... i found it interesting... nabasa ko rin mga reviews about the book sa net. kaya lang baka di ko kaya ang price (in the red kc ako sa ngayon). i'm only good at second-hand books right now. can i possibly borrow one from you? sorry po... wala kc ako kilala mahiraman. thank you po.''
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©2005 www.inq7.net all rights reserved



Why isn't it tipping?
First posted 01:05am (Mla time) Sept 15, 2005 By Ma. Ceres P. Doyo, Inquirer News Service
http://news.inq7.net/opinion/index.php?index=2&story_id=50253

"THE tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend or social behavior crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire... The tipping point is the moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point ... It is the name given to that one dramatic moment in an epidemic when everything can change all at once.''

Those definitions are from the bestseller and page-turner "The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference'' by Malcolm Gladwell. (His latest is "Blink.'')

I think of the tipping point this way: Imagine holding a tray with a handful of marbles on one side. You tip the tray at an angle but the marbles seem unwilling to roll over to the other side. You tip some more. Then at a certain angle, the marbles suddenly all roll in unison to the other side.

At that tipping point, movement takes place. This example, similar to the seesaw, illustrates in a physical way the so-called tipping point phenomenon which political watchers-in barbershops and beauty salons, political circles, cockpits, churches, academe-are anticipating.

When would it happen? How would it happen? Why isn't it happening? "It'' is some kind of People Power III, reminiscent of the previous two that saw a long-staying dictator and a president, just two years in office, removed dramatically.

Just an aside: "The tipping point'' has found its way to the lips of politicians who love the phrases "at the end of the day'' and -- this one will make Einstein and editors cringe -- "at this point in time."

Since Day One of the political crisis engulfing the administration of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, spawned by the so-called "Hello, Garci'' tapes, people have been anticipating, either with eagerness or with dread, President Arroyo's downfall. Many thought it would be in early July when a series of events happened in one day. There were bold moves, such as resignations from the Cabinet, protests in the streets and louder calls for President Arroyo to step down, with no less than former President Cory Aquino in the lead.

That day the clamor seemed to be peaking and the balance seemed to be tipping. And if you based your predictions on the way things appeared on TV, it was just a matter of hours or days, even as loyal local government officials from the provinces made the opposite move and came to the President's rescue.

President Arroyo didn't resign. The tide against her wasn't forceful enough to topple her.
The impeachment process in Congress took place. The much-watched process was nipped in the bud early on during the longest-in-history plenary session. More than 200 valedictories with immortal quotations -- from Mother Teresa, Saint Paul, Aristotle and Newton to Jaime Cardinal Sin -- yielded a 158-51-6 vote.

Again, street protests, led by Ms Aquino and a mix of ideologically and politically incompatible and divergent bedfellows linking arms, ensued. Still, the balance didn't tip. People Power III wasn't happening. Why?

Tired of waiting for it to happen? Relieved that it hasn't happened? Baffled and befuddled? Maybe we can learn a thing or two from Gladwell's explorations on how social epidemics spread, whether these are fashion trends, diseases, behavior patterns or crime. As journalist Deirdre Donahue said: "One of the most interesting aspects of Gladwell's book is the way it reaffirms that human beings are profoundly social beings influenced by and influencing other human beings, no matter how much technology we introduce into our lives.''

That seems to be telling us not to trust the text-messaging brigade too much, that we forget there are other more effective ways like, um, word of mouth and having the right people say the right things. The right people to cast the first stone.

Gladwell does not just propose answers from out of the blue. He explains by investigating true-to-life events that showed how the tipping point phenomena occurred. How did Hush Puppies regain its popularity in a spontaneous way? Why did the Baltimore syphilis epidemic peak?
What was it about Paul Revere and his midnight ride across Boston in 1775 that resulted in the routing of the British and the start of the war known as the American Revolution? Why did Paul Revere's warning tip while another crier's did not?

Gladwell also expounds on the results of experiments conducted by social psychologists, such as the one by Stanley Milgram who wanted to find an answer to what is called the "small-world'' problem. How are human beings connected? Do we all belong to separate worlds or are we all bound together in an interlocking web? How does an idea, or a piece of news -- The British are coming! -- travel through a population?

The results were confounding.

Gladwell summarizes the rules of the Tipping Point into three: the Law of the Few, the Stickiness Factor, and the Power of Context.

The Law of the Few says that through social connections, energy, enthusiasm and personality, word spreads.

The Stickiness Factor says that there are specific ways of making a contagious message memorable; there are relatively simple changes in the presentation and structuring of information that make a big difference in how much of an impact it makes.

The Power of Context says that human beings are a lot more sensitive to their environment than they may seem.

So why is it not tipping? Or to use another situation, why is the cake not rising? Maybe the ingredients are old, stale and spoiled. Maybe the ingredients are incompatible.

"The Tipping Point'' is also about changing one's way of looking at the world. I did that two weeks ago by attending a seminar on the Quantum World under Dr. Ibarra "Nim'' Gonzales.
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